Nate Silver of the New York Timespublished his annual NCAA Tournament forecast this morning.
The main points:
- Gonzaga, Louisville, Indiana, and Florida (a 3-seed) have the best odds to make the Final Four.
- Louisville has the best odds to win it all at 22.7%. But they are in the hardest bracket.
- Only seven teams — Louisville, Gonzaga, Indiana, Florida, Kansas, Ohio State, Duke — have more than a 2.5% chance to win it all.
Florida is the only real surprise. The Gators have been a bit inconsistent this year and they're in the same bracket as Kansas, Georgetown, and Michigan.
It's also mildly surprising that Gonzaga — who no one seems to like — is the statistical favorite in its bracket.
Check out the entire breakdown over at FiveThirtyEight >
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